Alamogordo, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Alamogordo NM
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Alamogordo NM
Issued by: National Weather Service El Paso, TX |
Updated: 5:42 am MDT Jul 27, 2025 |
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Today
 Sunny then Scattered T-storms
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Tonight
 Isolated T-storms then Partly Cloudy
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Monday
 Mostly Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Monday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Tuesday
 Partly Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Tuesday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Wednesday
 Mostly Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Wednesday Night
 Slight Chance T-storms then Partly Cloudy
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Thursday
 Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Hi 93 °F |
Lo 68 °F |
Hi 89 °F |
Lo 68 °F |
Hi 90 °F |
Lo 68 °F |
Hi 91 °F |
Lo 69 °F |
Hi 93 °F |
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Today
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Light and variable wind becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Tonight
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Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. East wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Monday
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A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind becoming south southeast 5 to 7 mph in the morning. |
Monday Night
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A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Southeast wind 3 to 7 mph. |
Tuesday
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. |
Tuesday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Southeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight. |
Wednesday
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A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. |
Wednesday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. South southwest wind around 6 mph becoming east after midnight. |
Thursday
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Sunny, with a high near 93. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest around 6 mph in the morning. |
Thursday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. |
Friday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, with a high near 94. |
Friday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. |
Saturday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, with a high near 93. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Alamogordo NM.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
690
FXUS64 KEPZ 271208
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
608 AM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 542 AM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025
- Moisture increases through Tuesday with the most widespread
thunderstorm activity being Monday and Tuesday.
- The flash flooding threat returns Monday and Tuesday, favoring
western areas, as a monsoonal plume sets up.
- After a cool down earlier in the week, temperatures rebound by
next weekend as storm chances diminish.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1002 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025
An inverted trough currently south of the Big Bend will continue its
trek westward across northern Mexico over the next several days
around the upper high over the Southeast. Our winds shift
southeasterly tonight in advance of the trough with moisture
beginning to increase. Dew points reach the 50s by the morning for
most areas, mixing out into the 40s during the afternoon,
producing enough moisture and instability to spark isolated to
scattered convection. Strong outflow gusts to 50 mph and blowing
dust are concerns Sun afternoon due to dew point depressions near
50 degrees and inverted-V forecast soundings. Heavy downpours and
localized flash flooding may accompany these storms with rain
rates of up to 2" per hour according to the RRFS as deeper
moisture filters in. Most of the activity dissipates around
sunset, but a few showers could linger into the overnight as PWs
approach 1.25" (for comparison, normal is around 1.1").
Monday and Tuesday still look like the most active days of the
period with PWs peaking close to 1.5" Monday night at KELP. As has
been seen so far this monsoon season with these moisture surges, the
Euro ensemble is more bullish on PWs than the GEFS early next week
(GEFS peaks 1.3-1.4"; EPS peaks 1.5"). The EPS has performed
better than the GEFS with its PW forecast. Meanwhile, the RRFS is
now within range and has been consistently showing PWs close to
1.7" (record levels) Monday night/Tue AM as the inverted trough
pushes through Chihuahua.
Regardless of just how much moisture we get, western areas and the
higher terrain are more favored to see heavy rainfall Mon/Tue.
Scattered to numerous storms are expected mainly west of the RGV
Monday PM with rain rates of 2-3" according to the RRFS and a low-
medium risk of flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars and
other sensitive areas like Vado. Tuesday will see lower storm
coverage east of the RGV as the upper high drifts into the
Southern Plains, nudging the moisture plume towards eastern AZ.
The high will continue to push westward for the second half of
the week, eventually sitting over the Southern Rockies by next
weekend. The threat of flash flooding out west diminishes through
midweek while the high and its drier air gain influence. Storm
chances continue to lower for eastern areas as the best moisture
is confined to northern and western areas later in the week. The
exact location of the high will be crucial in determining storm
chances and how much recycled moisture we`ll have to work with.
Temperatures stay warm for Sunday, then cooling to slightly below
normal into midweek due to more cloud cover. Temps rebound later
in the week as high pressure moves overhead and the deeper
moisture is flushed out.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025
Increasing low level moisture will lead to thunderstorm
development this afternoon. Models favor afternoon convection
initiation across the Sacramento Mountains as well as the along
the Rio Grande, on the leading edge of deeper moisture. A vort
lobe drifting east ahead of an inverted trough moving into eastern
Chihuahua also appears to be a triggering mechanism. Added PROB30s
for TSRA at LRU and ELP after 20-21Z, and mentioned wind gusts
30-35 knots given high DCAPE values (despite the relative
increase in low level moisture). VFR conditions will prevail
elsewhere, though convection will try to push west towards DMN in
the evening, but will be entering a less favorable environment.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 542 AM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025
Low level moisture will begin pushing back into the area from the
southeast today, though min RH values will remain 15 percent or
less west of the Continental Divide. Scattered thunderstorms will
mainly be focused along the Rio Grande and the Sacramento Mountains,
diminishing as they attempt to push west in the evening. Gusty and
erratic winds will accompany thunderstorms.
Increasing moisture will overspread the area Monday, with an uptick
in thunderstorm coverage, especially in the higher terrain, but
spreading into the lowlands in the evening. Monsoonal moisture
will prefer areas west of the Rio Grande Tuesday and Wednesday,
and drier air may push towards the Continental Divide later in the
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 99 76 95 73 / 40 30 30 50
Sierra Blanca 92 68 89 67 / 10 10 50 40
Las Cruces 97 70 91 68 / 40 40 30 60
Alamogordo 94 68 91 68 / 40 20 30 40
Cloudcroft 72 49 69 50 / 40 10 60 30
Truth or Consequences 96 70 91 68 / 20 20 30 50
Silver City 92 64 87 62 / 20 20 70 60
Deming 100 72 95 69 / 20 30 30 60
Lordsburg 99 71 94 68 / 10 20 50 60
West El Paso Metro 97 75 93 72 / 40 30 30 50
Dell City 96 71 93 71 / 10 10 30 20
Fort Hancock 100 74 95 74 / 10 10 50 50
Loma Linda 91 67 86 66 / 30 10 40 40
Fabens 98 74 94 73 / 30 30 30 40
Santa Teresa 97 73 92 71 / 30 30 30 60
White Sands HQ 97 73 92 73 / 30 30 30 50
Jornada Range 96 70 91 68 / 30 20 40 50
Hatch 100 71 94 69 / 30 20 30 60
Columbus 100 73 94 71 / 20 20 30 60
Orogrande 94 69 90 68 / 30 40 30 40
Mayhill 84 55 80 56 / 30 10 60 30
Mescalero 83 55 80 55 / 40 20 60 30
Timberon 81 54 76 55 / 30 20 50 30
Winston 89 59 84 58 / 20 20 50 50
Hillsboro 96 66 91 63 / 20 20 40 60
Spaceport 95 68 91 67 / 30 20 30 50
Lake Roberts 92 59 87 58 / 30 20 80 60
Hurley 94 65 89 63 / 20 30 60 60
Cliff 100 68 94 66 / 10 10 70 50
Mule Creek 95 64 91 63 / 10 10 60 50
Faywood 93 67 88 64 / 30 30 60 60
Animas 99 70 94 68 / 10 30 50 70
Hachita 97 69 91 67 / 20 30 40 70
Antelope Wells 97 68 92 67 / 10 30 40 70
Cloverdale 94 67 89 64 / 20 30 50 70
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...99
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