Alamogordo, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

690
FXUS64 KEPZ 271208
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
608 AM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 542 AM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025

 - Moisture increases through Tuesday with the most widespread
   thunderstorm activity being Monday and Tuesday.

 - The flash flooding threat returns Monday and Tuesday, favoring
   western areas, as a monsoonal plume sets up.

-  After a cool down earlier in the week, temperatures rebound by
   next weekend as storm chances diminish.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1002 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

An inverted trough currently south of the Big Bend will continue its
trek westward across northern Mexico over the next several days
around the upper high over the Southeast. Our winds shift
southeasterly tonight in advance of the trough with moisture
beginning to increase. Dew points reach the 50s by the morning for
most areas, mixing out into the 40s during the afternoon,
producing enough moisture and instability to spark isolated to
scattered convection. Strong outflow gusts to 50 mph and blowing
dust are concerns Sun afternoon due to dew point depressions near
50 degrees and inverted-V forecast soundings. Heavy downpours and
localized flash flooding may accompany these storms with rain
rates of up to 2" per hour according to the RRFS as deeper
moisture filters in. Most of the activity dissipates around
sunset, but a few showers could linger into the overnight as PWs
approach 1.25" (for comparison, normal is around 1.1").

Monday and Tuesday still look like the most active days of the
period with PWs peaking close to 1.5" Monday night at KELP. As has
been seen so far this monsoon season with these moisture surges, the
Euro ensemble is more bullish on PWs than the GEFS early next week
(GEFS peaks 1.3-1.4"; EPS peaks 1.5"). The EPS has performed
better than the GEFS with its PW forecast. Meanwhile, the RRFS is
now within range and has been consistently showing PWs close to
1.7" (record levels) Monday night/Tue AM as the inverted trough
pushes through Chihuahua.

Regardless of just how much moisture we get, western areas and the
higher terrain are more favored to see heavy rainfall Mon/Tue.
Scattered to numerous storms are expected mainly west of the RGV
Monday PM with rain rates of 2-3" according to the RRFS and a low-
medium risk of flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars and
other sensitive areas like Vado. Tuesday will see lower storm
coverage east of the RGV as the upper high drifts into the
Southern Plains, nudging the moisture plume towards eastern AZ.

The high will continue to push westward for the second half of
the week, eventually sitting over the Southern Rockies by next
weekend. The threat of flash flooding out west diminishes through
midweek while the high and its drier air gain influence. Storm
chances continue to lower for eastern areas as the best moisture
is confined to northern and western areas later in the week. The
exact location of the high will be crucial in determining storm
chances and how much recycled moisture we`ll have to work with.

Temperatures stay warm for Sunday, then cooling to slightly below
normal into midweek due to more cloud cover. Temps rebound later
in the week as high pressure moves overhead and the deeper
moisture is flushed out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Increasing low level moisture will lead to thunderstorm
development this afternoon. Models favor afternoon convection
initiation across the Sacramento Mountains as well as the along
the Rio Grande, on the leading edge of deeper moisture. A vort
lobe drifting east ahead of an inverted trough moving into eastern
Chihuahua also appears to be a triggering mechanism. Added PROB30s
for TSRA at LRU and ELP after 20-21Z, and mentioned wind gusts
30-35 knots given high DCAPE values (despite the relative
increase in low level moisture). VFR conditions will prevail
elsewhere, though convection will try to push west towards DMN in
the evening, but will be entering a less favorable environment.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 542 AM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Low level moisture will begin pushing back into the area from the
southeast today, though min RH values will remain 15 percent or
less west of the Continental Divide. Scattered thunderstorms will
mainly be focused along the Rio Grande and the Sacramento Mountains,
diminishing as they attempt to push west in the evening. Gusty and
erratic winds will accompany thunderstorms.

Increasing moisture will overspread the area Monday, with an uptick
in thunderstorm coverage, especially in the higher terrain, but
spreading into the lowlands in the evening. Monsoonal moisture
will prefer areas west of the Rio Grande Tuesday and Wednesday,
and drier air may push towards the Continental Divide later in the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  99  76  95  73 /  40  30  30  50
Sierra Blanca            92  68  89  67 /  10  10  50  40
Las Cruces               97  70  91  68 /  40  40  30  60
Alamogordo               94  68  91  68 /  40  20  30  40
Cloudcroft               72  49  69  50 /  40  10  60  30
Truth or Consequences    96  70  91  68 /  20  20  30  50
Silver City              92  64  87  62 /  20  20  70  60
Deming                  100  72  95  69 /  20  30  30  60
Lordsburg                99  71  94  68 /  10  20  50  60
West El Paso Metro       97  75  93  72 /  40  30  30  50
Dell City                96  71  93  71 /  10  10  30  20
Fort Hancock            100  74  95  74 /  10  10  50  50
Loma Linda               91  67  86  66 /  30  10  40  40
Fabens                   98  74  94  73 /  30  30  30  40
Santa Teresa             97  73  92  71 /  30  30  30  60
White Sands HQ           97  73  92  73 /  30  30  30  50
Jornada Range            96  70  91  68 /  30  20  40  50
Hatch                   100  71  94  69 /  30  20  30  60
Columbus                100  73  94  71 /  20  20  30  60
Orogrande                94  69  90  68 /  30  40  30  40
Mayhill                  84  55  80  56 /  30  10  60  30
Mescalero                83  55  80  55 /  40  20  60  30
Timberon                 81  54  76  55 /  30  20  50  30
Winston                  89  59  84  58 /  20  20  50  50
Hillsboro                96  66  91  63 /  20  20  40  60
Spaceport                95  68  91  67 /  30  20  30  50
Lake Roberts             92  59  87  58 /  30  20  80  60
Hurley                   94  65  89  63 /  20  30  60  60
Cliff                   100  68  94  66 /  10  10  70  50
Mule Creek               95  64  91  63 /  10  10  60  50
Faywood                  93  67  88  64 /  30  30  60  60
Animas                   99  70  94  68 /  10  30  50  70
Hachita                  97  69  91  67 /  20  30  40  70
Antelope Wells           97  68  92  67 /  10  30  40  70
Cloverdale               94  67  89  64 /  20  30  50  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...99